All the charts and data we refer to can be found on the Yacht Club page.
Hey everyone,
Here's where we left off:
And actually, this is quite exciting. A moderately bearish lean. Dealer selling above Mid (c. 6890). A nice, long, slippery slope to the downside, just below the Support band (c. 6840).
Simple plan: Short at 6890, long at 6840.
Well, after an initial move down from 90, it tried again, surpassed it, then flopped right back down to it for the settle.
So it definitely served as a source of resistance. But, more importantly, a short at 6890 didn't lose any money. Which is a decent day.
Right?
Wrong! Yesterday, of all days, we decided to buy a 0DTE put to express our "edge." A 0DTE put with a strike of 6890. So instead of 0%, we lost 100% on our trade. How was your day?!
Anyway...
On Sunday we argued that the dollar-resurgence, long-bond ideas—our "feelings"—were actually probably a good thing for U.S. megacaps, so while we thought it was smart, tactically, to be long SPX puts, we don't really want to re-up that exposure.
We're glad we didn't buy more puts. What a chart.
With GEX+ now considerably higher, Robot Jim is settling in to a more uniformly boring-bullish forecast.
As before, we'd like to limit our risk-surface here to intraday shenanigans, so let's consult the 0DTE dealer map.
Hmm. Again, short at Mid (c. 6905) looks like the right play. But then it seems smart to buy back that short 30 points higher (c. 6935) if we get there. On the downside, the Support band looks like it will be supportive. Nothing too surprising there.
One more thing: We finally want to try shorting FID (international high-dividend) to express our belief that dollar-strength is much more likely than implied by the market, and this could trend hard down when people come around to that idea. Cheap way to do it is probably VYMI puts. Will be poking at that this morning.
The SqueezeMetrics Team
