Hey everyone,

 

Yesterday, we placed a stop-limit buy order up around SPX 6030, because we thought things could really take off if we got up there.

Well, it didn't happen. So we didn't do anything. And that's that. Meanwhile, Jim's 1-week forecast distribution is still rather bullish.

Just as we were inclined, earlier in the week, to accept the likelihood of some downside pressure, but thought it would give way to some bullish impulses later in the week—we're inclined, today, to lean bullish.

 

Once again, though, we're not getting much help from 0DTEs. There's a big ol' position up around 6000 that looks like it could spur on a few pounts of buying around the Momentum band, but we're already down some 0.50% this morning, so it... doesn't look like we're heading there.

Instead, it looks like 0DTEs will gently encourage selling on the way down, even below the Support band. So the market will need to find it's own reason to rally, if that's what we're looking for.

 

Every single day, this has been the story: It feels like the market should want to gently momentum-trend to the upside, but every single day, the 0DTE positioning posits some skepticism about that.

 

This tension has left us with few intraday positions to take (or at least few getting filled), and with SPX ever-so gently pointing down. Interestingly, Robot Jim sees this tension, and thinks that just a little bit more downside today would spell the end of "momentum."

I.e., his forecast will become bearish if SPX lands below ~5920 today. That's interesting.

 

Still—we lack confidence in any approach right now, up or down. So we have no position. Sorry. That's boring. But sometimes the boring answer is the right one, n'est-ce pas?

 

Talk Sunday.

 

The SqueezeMetrics Team